September 19 2024
New research confirms that car use, working from home, and congestion have a key impact on bus use in Scotland
A companion to research published in 2017, covering the period 2011-16, Trends in Scottish bus patronage demonstrates that bus journeys have declined between 2017 and 2023 and analyses the reasons why. Between 2017 and 2019 bus use decline was in line with longer-term linear trends. There was then a sudden drop due to the Covid pandemic in 2020 and 2021, followed by recovery in 2022 and 2023.
By the end of 2023 patronage had returned to where it might have been expected to be without the impact of the pandemic – however it is currently too early to predict whether this this is reverting to the long-term downward trend or the start of a new one, for example due to the introduction of free travel for under 22’s, which was introduced in 2022.
The bus sector is part of a wider environment and is therefore affected by a multitude of market trends and disruptors. Some of these trends and disruptors impact on the need to travel, either positively or negatively, and some influence the price, quality, and availability of alternative transport modes.
The report demonstrates that only a small proportion of drivers of demand for bus are directly within operators’ control – and even then, factors such as fares, service provision, and journey times, are influenced by external conditions like operating costs, demand levels, and traffic congestion.
Competition from cars has historically been, and remains, the primary negative influence on bus use. Any increase in bus use due to population growth is offset by car ownership and use. These socio-demographic factors account for 43% of the decline in bus use.
Alternatives to transport, such as working from home and online shopping have also had a large impact, accounting for 38% of the reduction in bus trips.
20m fewer trips are made annually due to increased bus journey times resulting from congestion.
Paul White, Director of CPT Scotland said:
“This research concludes that transforming patronage and reversing decline will not be achieved through one single measure or intervention. Joint working is required to reduce journey times, increase reliability, improve affordability, and leverage technology for enhanced customer information and engagement.
“It also confirms the huge impact that car ownership has on actual and potential bus use in Scotland, and in turn the impact these car journeys have on road congestion and increased bus journey times. The Scottish Government’s imminent final route map to reducing car use and achieving a 20% reduction in car km by 2030 therefore has a crucial role in determining the future of bus use in Scotland”
ENDS
About the research
KPMG UK conducted the research between May and September 2024. The key sources of data analysed were the Scottish Household Survey and other published academic research. Some data was also supplied by CPT Scotland members.
For further information contact: Scotland@cpt-uk.org